New Zealand’s support for the “Leave” campaign is on the wane.
Key points:A majority of Kiwis (65%) say they plan to vote Labour in the 2019 general electionSource: Election New Zealand poll published on FridayThe poll suggests the UK referendum will help Labour in its bid to keep a seat in Parliament for the next decadeThe result will have implications for the UK’s place in the EU, as many Kiwis say they feel strongly that the country should leave the bloc.
It was a survey of 583 Kiwis carried out for The Sport by Election New York on Friday.
Of those who said they would definitely vote Labour if the UK left the EU in 2019, 55% said they were planning to vote.
The poll was conducted in the aftermath of a leak from a Labour party source that revealed that a draft manifesto would include the option to leave a free trade agreement with the EU.
This would have left the UK without a single trade deal with other countries and likely left a massive gap in New Zealand trade.
The New Zealand government has previously said that such a deal would be extremely difficult to achieve, given the costs of leaving the EU and the difficulties of re-entering it, and could leave New Zealand reliant on its closest trading partners.
But the new poll suggests Kiwis are more supportive of the “Remain” campaign, as they believe Labour will hold a better balance of power after leaving the bloc, while also wanting to stay in the bloc and protect the country’s position in the world.
This poll also found that, even if the referendum results do not change the country permanently, New Zealand is more likely than not to vote for Labour in 2019.
“The Brexit vote will have an effect on the Labour Party’s position vis-a-vis the government, so I think they are likely to hold onto their seat in 2019,” Associate Professor Matt O’Connor from The University of Otago’s Institute of Political Research said.
“I think that’s one of the big issues that’s driving people to the polls.
People think they can’t lose their seats.
And so if the Leave campaign is able to persuade enough people to stay, it’s going to be very hard for them to lose seats.”
The poll found that New Zealand was also more likely for Labour to win than to lose a seat.
The results are based on a survey that had a margin of error of 4.4%.